August, 2007

Long-term stabilization targets of CO₂ concentrations (assessment of impact of global warming and ultimate objective)

The ultimate objective of UNFCCC is, as described in Article 2, to achieve stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentration at a level that would not cause dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system. Although specific level of stabilized concentration is not shown, this objective requires us to be well-balanced in terms of its impact to both climate system and economic activity.

For global warming issue with requiring long-term technology development and significant revolution of social system, it is crucial to reach an international agreement on a certain stabilization level of concentration. Once it is agreed, discussion on a framework of short to middle-term reduction could be easier.
Long-term stabilization level is discussed within EU actively, and European Commission insists 2℃ target consistently, although lacking of clear grounds.
Our study assesses possible impact caused by global warming and their countermeasures comprehensively, then suggests desirable level of stabilized concentration.

We need to pay attention to the possibility of international agreement in terms of burden share of reduction between developed countries and developing countries.

• Stabilization of CO₂ Concentrations(PDF file 2,183KB)