Project for international cooperation on the analysis and assessment of technologies for climate change mitigation (ALPS III; FY2017-FY2021)
ALPS Project（ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization）
Research Works
In this project, we conducted the following tasks (1)-(5). (1) We discuss and compile quantitative analysis on climate risk management carried out within this project, while pointing out various types of uncertainties related to climate change. In particular, we conducted a study on the economic impact and effectiveness of climate change impact as well as adaptation measures. Overall findings of the latest assessment reports of IPCC WG1 and WG2 was also summarized. Besides, we discuss the role of innovation for climate risk management by compiling the possibilities of innovation for climate change mitigation. (2) We estimate consumption-based CO2 emissions on the global level and for major countries in order to search for green growth opportunities while properly recognizing its limits. Furthermore, we assessed the resilience of the Japanese economy to energy price fluctuations, analyzed policy issues for electricity market liberalization and climate policy, and reviewed the trend and modelling-based analyses on green finance. (3) We analyze and assess mid-term climate change mitigation through a compilation of the post-2030 targets of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) contained in the Paris Agreement. In particular we assessed the effect on global competition by analyzing how various constraints increase the cost of achieving the NDCs. In addition, we reviewed the climate policy on border tax adjustment and performed modeling analysis of the effects. (4) We present our analysis of long-term mitigation scenarios. Trends and the latest international analyses in the development of various technologies for carbon neutrality are summarized. We analyze various scenarios in the integrated assessment model for the carbon neutrality in 2050 for both the energy supply side and the demand side. (5) We investigate the results of a survey on the latest trends in overseas climate policies, as well as an overview of international model comparison projects and scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other organizations. Key points of tasks (1) to (5) are described in the following paragraphs.
We address the issue of climate risk management. The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC WG1 assessed that there is "no doubt" that climate change is caused by human intervention. The findings of the IPCC's most recent assessments of the science of climate change (WG1) and climate change impacts and adaptation (WG2) are pulled together. In order to ensure climate stabilization, it is necessary to reduce CO2 emission to nearly zero. However, there is great uncertainty regarding climate sensitivity and climate-induced damage. There is also great uncertainty regarding the cost of climate change mitigation. We can also point out significant disparities across countries in terms of the marginal abatement costs to achieve the NDCs of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, if we take into account national constraints such as the nuclear stance, the necessity to conciliate mitigation goals with energy security and other national policies, and other constraints from each country's political system, the total mitigation cost is probably much higher than the mitigation cost assessed with cost minimization methods. Besides, although the long-term target has been set at 2ºC or 1.5 ºC, given the uncertainty around future average temperature as well as future socioeconomic pathways, the uncertainty in mitigation costs is very important as well (which will be evaluated in detail in (4)). In addition, the political stability of the climate change framework is also an important issue. In such a context, and taking into account various risk factors, there is great need for good decision making in climate change response. Adaptation is also regarded as an important option to reduce the risk of climate change comprehensively. This research summarized the ways of climate change risk management, referring to the economic impact and effects of climate change impacts and adaptation, as well as innovation and policies that could induce it.
We examine limits and potential of green growth using data and quantitative analysis as far as possible. The Japanese government is committed to a "virtuous cycle between the environment and the economy". However, there is no clear path to this goal at present, and it can be considered a narrow path.
We have collected and analyzed quantitative data on the decoupling between the economy and CO2 emissions, and examined the factors behind this. Based on the latest data, we estimated the indirect electricity imports embeded in products made in Japan and assessed the resilience of the Japanese economy to energy price fluctuation. The performance of the Low Carbon Society Action Plan, which is being implemented by Japanese industry, including the perspective of green growth, was preliminary evaluated in terms of emission reduction efforts.
Besides, we conducted literature review on the current situation of renewable integration in Europe and Japan and related issues. Since the Chinese government has implemented renewable energy deployment for poverty alleviation, we assessed their impacts and challenges. We discussed issues to be addressed in promoting global warming mitigation under deregulation of electric power. Furthermore, we summarized the trend in Green Finance and its challenges based on the modeling analysis. The challenges of increasing gap in cost burden associated with climate policies were also investigated and discussed.
We analyze and assess the post-2030 targets of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) contained in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is based on a pledge-and-review mechanism, and international review of NDCs will be important. Since 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted, the international economic outlook has been changing, including the impact of COVID-19. In addition, as mentioned earlier, many countries, especially developed countries, have strengthened their emission reduction targets for 2030 in their NDCs. Therefore, in this study, based on the latest trends, we conducted an international comparison of the emission reduction efforts of NDCs in each country by adopting several indicators, including emission reduction costs. We also analyzed and evaluated the economic impact of Japan's new 2030 emission reduction target of 46%. The cost and economic impact of Japan's new emission reduction target of 46% in 2030 are estimated to be significant. In addition, literature on international NDCs assessment was also reviewed. We conducted a literature review and sorted peer-reviewed publications regarding NDCs assessment.
In Europe, the introduction of a carbon border tax adjustment is now being considered, so we conducted broad research on border tax adjustment policy and upgraded our energy-economic model to analyze the impacts of the policy to estimate the impact of introducing a border tax adjustment under the NDCs in 2030. Analyses were also made with foreign models for comparison. Although the border tax adjustment is expected to have a certain effect on carbon leakage, the effect can be limited, and generally it is important to adjust emission reduction targets so that the difference in marginal CO2 reduction costs does not become too large among countries.
We present a comprehensive analysis of long-term global warming measures and policies. As mentioned above, many countries, including the Japanese government, have set a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. In light of this situation, we analyzed both energy supply and demand side energy systems in the DNE21+ model, a global energy and climate change assessment model. In particular, for Japan's 2050 carbon neutrality target, the scenario analysis conducted in this project was provided to the Strategic Policy Committee of the Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, which discussed the Sixth Basic Energy Plan, and contributed to the discussion for carbon neutrality.
Specifically, on the energy supply side, we conducted a technical survey on hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, such as ammonia and synthetic fuels (synthetic methane and synthetic liquid fuels), which are expected to become more and more important in achieving carbon neutrality, as well as a survey on various economic evaluations. We also conducted a technical survey on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, such as direct atmospheric capture and storage (DACCS), and various economic evaluations. These studies were also reflected in the 2050 carbon neutrality analysis using the DNE21+ model, and sensitivity analyses of the feasibility are also made.
As for the energy demand side, we investigated and summarized the possibility of realizing low energy demand through IoT and AI technology, etc. We also evaluated the impact of the realization of fully automated vehicles on inducing car sharing and ride sharing, the possibility of reducing food waste in the food system and its impact, the trend of apparel, and the possibility and issues of reducing energy and CO2 emissions, including energy embodied in products in the apparel sector. For a comprehensive analysis of consumer behavior, we investigated the changes in lifestyle or behavior caused by COVID-19 pandemic. We examined how technological and social changes, such as digitization, might affect our daily life and bring about changes in energy demand, and studied the estimation of "hidden costs" in technology diffusion. These studies are expected to contribute to develop analytical tools and deep understanding of the change in behavior, including the rebound effect, and gaining insights into future energy demand.
For the harmonization of sustainable development and climate change, we analyzed the relationship among land use change, food supply and demand.
We invesigate the trends in international scenario analysis on carbon neutrality and summarize the initiative of the international model comparison projects. In May 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published the global 2050 carbon neutral (NZE) scenario in Net Zero by 2050, and in October 2021, the World Energy Outlook (WEO2021) presented a more detailed description of the NZE scenario along with other scenarios. This project outlines these scenarios and compares them with the DNE21+ scenario. As for international model projects, we summarized the ENGAGE (Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions) project, funded by the European Commission and led by IIASA, which analyzes and evaluates technically, socially, and politically achievable emission reduction pathways for the Paris Agreement targets.
