Project for international cooperation on the analysis and assessment of technologies for climate change mitigation (ALPS IV; FY2022-)
ALPS Project（ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization）
Research Works
In this project, we conducted the following tasks (1)-(5) in the fiscal year 2022. (1) We discuss and compily quantitative analysis on climate risk management carried out within this project, while pointing out various types of uncertainties related to climate change. In particular, we conducted a study on the economic impact and effectiveness of climate change impact as well as adaptation measures. This study also describes synergies and trade-offs between climate change actions and other SDG targets, including those assesseed in the IPCC's latest assessment report. Furthermore, we discuss the role of innovation for climate risk management by compiling the possibilities of innovation for climate change mitigation. (2) We summarize the results of various surveys and analyses in order to search for green growth opportunities while properly recognizing its limits. Furthermore, we assessed the structural factors in long-term energy productivity in the Japanese economy and measurement of energy productivity changes in Japanese industry, analyzed policy issues for electricity market liberalization and climate policy, and reviewed the trend and modelling-based analyses on sustainable finance. (3) We analyze and assess mid-term climate change mitigation through a compilation of the post-2030 targets of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) contained in the Paris Agreement. In particular we assessed the effect on global competition by analyzing how various constraints increase the cost of achieving the NDCs. In addition, we reviewed the climate policy on border tax adjustment and performed modeling analysis of the effects. (4) We present our analysis of long-term mitigation scenarios. Trends and the latest international analyses in the development of various technologies for carbon neutrality are summarized. We analyze various scenarios in the integrated assessment model for the carbon neutrality in 2050 for both the energy supply side and the demand side. (5) We investigate the results of a survey on the latest trends in overseas climate policies, as well as an overview of international model comparison projects and scenarios developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other organizations. Key points of tasks (1) to (5) are described in the following paragraphs.
We address the issue of climate risk management. The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC WG1 assessed that there is "no doubt" that climate change is caused by human intervention. In order to ensure climate stabilization, it is necessary to reduce CO2 emission to nearly zero. However, there is great uncertainty regarding climate sensitivity and climate-induced damage. There is also great uncertainty regarding the cost of climate change mitigation. We can also point out significant disparities across countries in terms of the marginal abatement costs to achieve the NDCs of the Paris Agreement. Moreover, if we take into account national constraints such as the nuclear stance, the necessity to conciliate mitigation goals with energy security and other national policies, and other constraints from each country's political system, the total mitigation cost is probably much higher than the mitigation cost assessed with cost minimization methods. In such a context, and taking into account various risk factors, there is great need for good decision making in climate change response. Adaptation is also regarded as an important option to reduce the risk of climate change comprehensively. This study describes the synergies and trade-offs between climate change measures and the SDGs, as summarized in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. While there are many synergies between various measures and the SDGs, there are trade-offs as well, so measures need to be taken while reducing the impact of the trade-offs. It also summarized the ways of climate change risk management, referring to the economic impact and effects of climate change impacts and adaptation, as well as innovation and policies that could induce it.
We examine limits and potential of green growth using data and quantitative analysis as far as possible. The Japanese government is committed to a "virtuous cycle between the environment and the economy". However, there is no clear path to this goal at present, and it can be considered a narrow path.
We have collected and analyzed the latest quantitative data on the decoupling between the economy and CO2 emissions, and examined the factors behind this. And for a deeper analysis, we analyzed structural factors in long-term energy productivity changes in the Japanese economy, as well as measuring energy productivity changes in Japanese industry. The performance of the Carbon Neutrality Action Plan, which is being implemented by Japanese industry, including the perspective of green growth, was preliminary evaluated in terms of emission reduction efforts.
Besides, we conducted literature review on the current situation of renewable integration in Europe and Japan and related issues. We discussed the issues involved in addressing global warming under the deregulation of power sector, and the trends in electric power policy that are being implemented to respond to these issues. Furthermore, we summarized the trend of sustainable finance, such as Green Bond and Sustainability Link Loan, and their challenges based on the modeling analysis. The challenges of increasing gap in cost burden associated with climate policies were also investigated and discussed.
We analyze and assess the post-2030 targets of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) contained in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is based on a pledge-and-review mechanism, and international review of NDCs will be important. In this study, based on the latest trends, we conducted an international comparison of the emission reduction efforts of NDCs in each country by adopting several indicators, including emission reduction costs. We also analyzed and evaluated the economic impact of Japan's new 2030 emission reduction target of 46%. The cost and economic impact of Japan's new emission reduction target of 46% in 2030 are estimated to be significant. In addition, literature on international NDCs assessment was also reviewed. We conducted a literature review and sorted peer-reviewed publications regarding NDCs assessment.
In Europe, the introduction of a carbon border tax adjustment is now being considered, so we conducted broad research on border tax adjustment policy and upgraded our energy-economic model to analyze the impacts of the policy to estimate the impact of introducing a border tax adjustment under the NDCs in 2030. Analyses were also made with foreign models for comparison. Although the border tax adjustment is expected to have a certain effect on carbon leakage, the effect can be limited, and generally it is important to adjust emission reduction targets so that the difference in marginal CO2 reduction costs does not become too large among countries.
We present a comprehensive analysis of long-term global warming measures and policies. As mentioned above, many countries, including the Japanese government, have set a goal of carbon neutrality by 2050. In light of this situation, we analyzed both energy supply and demand side energy systems in the DNE21+ model, a global energy and climate change assessment model. In FY2021, analysis of carbon neutrality in 2050 was conducted. In FY2022, scenario analysis using the DNE21+ model was conducted as a roadmap for each sector, including transitions toward carbon neutrality.
On the energy supply side, we conducted a technical survey on hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, such as ammonia, e-methane and e-fuels, which are expected to become more and more important in achieving carbon neutrality, as well as a survey on various economic evaluations. We also conducted a technical survey on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, such as direct atmospheric capture and storage (DACCS), and various economic evaluations. These studies were also reflected in the 2050 carbon neutrality analysis using the DNE21+ model, and sensitivity analyses of the feasibility are also made.
As for the energy demand side, we investigated and summarized the possibility of realizing low energy demand through circular economy and sharing economy that can be induced around digital transformation (DX). We examined technological trends in 3D printing, technological and social changes in the freight sector due to DX, and land use changes associated with food waste reduction and the resulting reduction in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions for a comprehensive analysis of consumer behavior, we investigated the changes in lifestyle or behavior caused by COVID-19 pandemic. We examined quantitatively how technological and social changes, such as DX, might affect our daily life and bring about changes in energy demand, using the DNE21+ model to analyze both energy supply and demand in a consistent manner. These studies are expected to contribute to develop analytical tools and deep understanding of the change in behavior, including the rebound effect, and gaining insights into future energy demand.
An updated model for estimating non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and abatement costs was also assessed and provided.
We investigate the trends in international scenario analysis on carbon neutrality and summarizes the initiative of the international model comparison projects. First, we summarized the emission scenarios and the abatement costs and potentials summarized in the IPCC WG3 6th Assessment Report. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook WEO2022, released in October 2022, was also overviewed. This report outlines these scenarios and compares them with the DNE21+ scenario (see task (3) and task(4)). As for international model projects, we summarized the ENGAGE (Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions) project, funded by the European Commission and led by IIASA, which analyzes and evaluates technically, socially, and politically achievable emission reduction pathways for the Paris Agreement targets.
