Analysis Examples of Integrated Assessment Model DNE21
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21 - Climate Change Model
"New Earth 21" Program
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21
Climate Change Model
・Integration of a climate change model based on the simple climate change model MAGICC by Prof. T.M.L.Wigley et al.
・Updating various kinds of parameters of the climate change model based on the latest report of IPCC
As for a part of the items in the figure, details can be seen via clicking them.
Climate Change Model
Assumption of greenhouse gas emissions from non-energy
Future greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from other than energy system are derived from B2 Scenario on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). CO2 and SOx emissions from energy systems are calculated in DNE21 model.
| Y1990 | Y2000 | Y2020 | Y2050 | Y2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deforestation CO2(PgC) | 1.11 | 1.07 | 0.03 | -0.23 | -0.5 |
| Cement Prod. CO2(PgC) | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.4 | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| CH4(Tg) | 465 | 478 | 539 | 659 | 752 |
| N2O(TgN) | 15.0 | 15.3 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 15.2 |
| CO(TgC) | 377.0 | 375.9 | 438.0 | 565.3 | 858.0 |
| VOC(Tg) | 139 | 141 | 180 | 217 | 170 |
| NOx(Tg) | 31.0 | 32.0 | 42.7 | 54.5 | 61.2 |
| Non-energy SOx(TgS) | 9.9 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 0 |
| CFC-11(Gg) | 331 | 163 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| CFC-12(Gg) | 404 | 194 | 40 | 1 | 0 |
| CFC-113(Gg) | 163 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| CFC-114(Gg) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| CFC-115(Gg) | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| CCl4(Gg) | 132 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| CH3CCl3(Gg) | 820 | 342 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| Halon1211(Gg) | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Halon1301(Gg) | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| HCFC-22(Gg) | 153 | 267 | 178 | 3 | 0 |
| HCFC-123(Gg) | 0 | 43 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
| HCFC-141b(Gg) | 0 | 23 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
| HCFC-124b(Gg) | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| HCFC-142b(Gg) | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| HCFC225cb(Gg) | 6 | 16 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| HFC-23(Gg) | 6 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| HFC-32(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 26 |
| HFC-43-10(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 18 |
| HFC-125(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 26 | 78 | 93 |
| HFC-134a(Gg) | 0 | 80 | 262 | 561 | 1079 |
| HFC-152a(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| HFC-143a(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 16 | 35 | 65 |
| HFC-227ea(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 20 | 41 | 80 |
| HFC-245ca(Gg) | 0 | 0 | 85 | 178 | 353 |
| SF6(Gg) | 6.0 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 10.6 |
| CF4(Gg) | 12.6 | 12.6 | 27.1 | 52.7 | 59.9 |
| C2F6(Gg) | 1.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 6.0 |
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21 - Climate Change Model (The ocean up-take model)
The non-linearity of CO2 fluxes into the ocean is represented by the following equations and figures.
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21 - Climate Change Model (The terrestrial carbon cycle model)
The carbon cycle model includes the terrestrial biosphere model, which has 4 terrestrial carbon storages of atmosphere (M), living plants (P), detritus (H) and soil (S), considering the fertilization effects by the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21 - Climate Change Model (Projection of Atmospheric CH4 and N2O Concentration)
The below figure shows the atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) and nitrus oxide (N2O) calculated with the Climate Change Model under the B2 emission scenario on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
