Analysis Examples of Integrated Assessment Model DNE21
Model analyses in "CO2 Concentration Regulation Scenario - Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2 Concentration under 550 ppmv"
"New Earth 21" Program
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
The model analysis results can be seen here for the stabilization case of the atmospheric CO2 concentration under 550 ppmv.
The concentration of 550 ppmv corresponds to the double of the pre-industrial revolution level (about 275 ppmv), though the desirable level is still unknown. This target is, however, the modest one because the mitigation costs increase drastically for the stabilization target below 550 ppmv.
- ・Reference scenario
- ・Carbon tax scenario
- ・CO2 emission reduction
scenario - ・CO2 concentration stabilization scenario
etc.
- ・Population
- ・Reference GDP
- ・Reference final energy demands
etc.
- ・Energy resource and supply cost
- ・Energy conversion efficiency and facility cost
- ・Transportation cost of energy and CO2
- ・CO2 recovery efficiency and facility cost
- ・CO2 sequestration capacity and cost
etc.
- ・Other GHGs emissions
etc.
etc.
- ・Primary energy production
- ・Interregional transportation of energy and CO2
- ・Primary energy consumption
- ・Energy conversion and facility capacity
- ・Electricity generation and facility capacity
- ・CO2 emissions
- ・CO2 recovery and sequestration
- ・Energy price (marginal price)
- ・Marginal abatement cost of CO2
etc.
etc.
Each item of the model results in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case can be seen by a click in the figure. The results for the 10 divided world regions are obtained by the model, but the data shown here is aggregated to the world total.
Gross Domestic Products (GDP)
The world GDP loss in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case from in the Reference Case would be about 3% (the maximum between 2000 and 2100).
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Final energy consumption
The 24% reduction of final energy demands from those in the Reference Case is the cost-effective strategy in 2100 in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
World primary energy production
The increase of the share of natural gas supply in the total primary energy is cost-effective in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. The increases of photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear power and biomass energy uses are also cost-effective after the middle of the 21st century. Coal also increases in 2100 because of the use of Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) with CO2 capture.
→ CO2 emission reduction effects of technological options
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Interregional transportation of energy (net import of fossil fuels)
The most part of the oil export is from the Middle East and North Africa in 2020, and the export shares of Former USSR & Eastern Europe and Latin America increase in 2050. The model results shows that the imports of coal and oil in the Other Asia increase in 2050.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Primary energy consumption by region
The figure below shows the cost-effective primary energy consumption for the world divided regions in 2030 and 2100 in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. A large amount of wind power use in 2100 is the cost-effective strategy especially in North America. A relatively large amount of nuclear power use is cost-effective in C.P.E.Asia including China.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Oil refinery
The figure below shows the world total oil refineries of distillation and gasoline in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. It is the cost-effective strategy that these refineries expand gradually up to the middle of the 21st century and reduce gradually after the middle of the 21st century.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
World electricity generation
The increase of the natural gas supply share in the total electricity generation is cost-effective in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. The increases of IGCC with CO2 capture, photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear power and biomass used power are also cost-effective after the middle of the 21st century.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
CO2 emissions
A large amount of CO2 emission reduction especially after the middle of the 21st century is required in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. The model result shows that the emission in 2100 is about 5.3 GtC/yr, which is smaller than the present emission level. The profile of the emission depends strongly on the assumed time preference discount rate. The rate is assumed to be 5 %/yr in this simulation. The technology developments in the present are required for the mitigation after the middle of the 21st century under the assumed discount rate.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Cumulative CO2 sequestration in 2100 by region
The figure below shows the cumulative CO2 sequestration until 2100 for the world regions in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. In Japan, the most part of the sequestration options is into ocean, but a part of those is into aquifer.
→ CO2 emission reduction effects of technological options including CO2 sequestration
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Energy price (marginal price)
Primary energy supply price (CIF price)
The figure below shows the import energy prices (CIF price) in Japan in the Stabilization Case of Atomospheric CO2 Concentration at 550 ppmv. The price of oil and natural gas (LNG) in 2100 increases to about 400 US$/toe. A larger amount of natural gas is used in this case than in the Reference Case, and hence the price is higher than in the Reference Case. On the other hand, the oil price is smaller than in the Reference Case because of the less oil use. The CIF price of coal in 2100 is 130 US$/toe, which is 40 US$/toe lower than in the Reference Case, because of the larger reduction of coal use.
Energy price on ene-use sector (electricity price)
The figure below shows the electricity prices on the end-use sector in Japan, North America and Western Europe by the model results in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
CO2 shadow price (marginal CO2 emission reduction cost)
CO2 shadow price is the cost to reduce the additional unit CO2 emission in the target time point, and corresponds to the marginal CO2 emission reduction cost. The shadow price also corresponds to the theoretical carbon tax rate. The prices in 2010 and 2100 are calculated to be about 5 and 450 US1990$/tC, respectively.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
This scenario is for the stablization of atmospheric CO2 concentration at 550 ppmv. The time preference discount rate is assumed to be 5%/yr in this simulation.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Global mean temperature change
The global mean temperature change in 2100 is calculated to be about 2.3 degrees C (relative to the mean between 1961-1990) in the 550ppmv Stabilization Case. The temperature of about 1.0 degrees C decreases in 2100 from in the Reference Case to in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case. Although the CO2 concentration is stabilized in this case, the increase of the temperature also continues after 2100 because of the time delay of the temperature change.
Analysis Examples of DNE21 - 550ppmv Stabilization Case
Sea Level Change
The sea level rise in 2100 is calculated to be about 40 cm (relative to in 1990) in the 550 ppmv Stabilization Case and is about 10 cm lower than in the Reference Case. Although CO2 concentration is stabilized in this case, the increase of the sea level continues even after 2100 because of the large time delay of the sea level change.
