Integrated Assessment Model DNE21

"New Earth 21" Project

Energy Systems Model

"Bottom-up" modeling for technologies on energy supply side and CO₂ capture & sequestration

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Energy Systems Model

Assumption of Primary Energy Resources and the Supply Costs

Assumption of fossil fuel resources and the production costs

Assumed Fossil Fuel Resources

	Proved recoverable reserves	Other reserves and resources	Non-conventional
	Conventional		Non-conventional
Oil	150	145	2,343
Natural Gas	129	265	19,306
	Hard coal	Brown coal
Coal	5,646	599

Unit: Gtoe, Source: H-H.Rogner, 1997

The production costs of fossil fuels are assumed to increase by the increase of the cumulative productions.

Assumption of renewable energies and the production cost

Assumption of energy and CO₂ transportation Costs

The transportation costs of natural gas, hydrogen and CO₂ are relatively high. The transportation costs by pipeline depend strongly on the transportation distances.

Assumption of Energy Conversion Efficiency and Facility Costs

Assumption of electricity generation costs

	Y2000	Y2030	Y2100
	Unit construction cost ($/kW)
Natural Gas	500 - 1060	500 - 780	500
Oil	270 - 410	270 - 350	270
Coal (De-S)	970 - 2050	1010 - 1550	1050
IGCC with CO₂ capture	1240 - 2170	1260 - 1770	1300
Biomass	1230	1000	1000
Methanol	1200	900	600
Hydrogen	1100	800	500
Nuclear	1790 - 2620	1840 - 2260	1900
Elec. storage (water pumping)	1000 - 1500	1000 - 1300	1000
	Unit generation cost ($/MWh)
	Y2000	Y2030	Y2100
Hydro & Geoth.	10 - 180	10 - 180	10 - 180
Wind	70 - 340	52 - 251	42 - 206
Photovoltaics	235 - 469	83 - 166	42 - 83

Note: The ranges of the unit construction costs and electricity generation costs are due to the cost differences among the regions and also the cost distribution within the region.

Source: NEA/IEA, "Projected Costs of Generating Electricity: Update 1998", OECD, 1998. etc.

Assumption of electricity generation efficiency

	Y2000	Y2030	Y2050	Y2100
Natural Gas	47.0	54.8	60.0	65.0
Oil	36.0	46.4	49.0	49.0
Coal (De-S)	40.7	46.3	50.0	55.0
IGCC with CO₂ capture	36.0	42.6	47.0	52.0
Biomass	24.1	40.6	45.0	45.0
Methanol	44.9	51.6	55.0	60.0
Hydrogen	51.4	54.1	55.9	65.0
Elec. storage (water pumping)	70.0	75.0	75.0	75.0

Note: The unit is LHV-base %. The efficiency of electricity generation of IGCC with CO₂ capture includes the energy loss necessary for CO₂ capture. Though the efficiencies in the model are assumed for each of the 10 regions, the above efficiencies are for Japan.

Assumption of chemical plants

Energy conversion process	Unit construction cost ($/(toe/day))	Operating rate (%)	Conversion efficiency (%)
Coal gasification	203,000	90	61
Natural gas splitting	164,000	90	76
Biomass gasification	193,000	90	52
Shift reactor conv. process	14,000	90	99
Methanol synthesis from CO	113,000	90	62
Methanol synthesis from CO₂	126,000	90	62
Methane synthesis	112,000	90	77
Water electrolysis	223,000	90	80-90
Oil refinery distillation	29,000	70	95
Oil refinery gasoline prod.	42,000	70	90
Coal liquefaction	200,000	90	67
Biomass liquefaction	230,000	90	75
Up-grading of methanol to gasoline	46,000	70	93

Note: The conversion efficiencies are the values in the case of electricity generation efficiency of 33%. The conversion efficiency of water electrolysis is assumed to improve as time goes on.

Assumption of CO₂ recovery efficiency and the facility costs

	Unit construction cost ($/(tC/day))	Required electricity (MWh/tC)	Recovery ratio of CO₂ (%)
Chemical recovery of flue gas from electric power plants	56,500	0.927 - 0.719	90
Physical recovery from gasification plants	14,500	0.902 - 0.496	90

Note: Energy efficiency is assumed to improve within the above values as time goes on.

Assumption of capacitis and costs of CO₂ sequestration

Assumption of future final energy demands in Reference Case

The model uses the growth rate of final energy demands per GDP, which is derived for each kind of fuel and electricity from B2 Scenario (the original is the medium scenario of United Nations (UN) in 1998) on the "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)" of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The assumed final energy demands for the 10 world regions are calculated by the synthesis of the above growth rate and the GDP assumption.
The assumption of final energy demands are for the Reference Case, and the final energy demands in the case of global warming mitigation or CO₂ reduction policy are calculated by the model.