Analysis Examples of Integrated Assessment Model DNE21
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21 - Macro Economic Model
"New Earth 21" Program
Integrated Assessment Model DNE21
Macro Economic Model
・Production function of a nested CES type, which consists of capital and labor, and 4 kinds of energy demands
・Maximizing the sum of the discounted utility of consumption for the evaluation time span
Macro Economic Model
Assumption of future population
The model uses the future population assumption derived from B2 Scenario (the original is the medium scenario of United Nations (UN) in 1998) on the "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)" of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Population scenario (million people)
| Y1980 | Y2000 | Y2020 | Y2050 | Y2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World total | 4390 | 6020 | 7640 | 9370 | 10410 |
| Japan | 110 | 130 | 120 | 100 | 60 |
Assumption of future GDP in Reference Case
The model uses the growth rate of GDP per capita, which derived from B2 Scenario on the "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)" of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The assumed GDP by the 10 world regions are calculated by the synthesis of the growth rate and the population assumption.
The assumption of GDP are for the Reference Case, and the GDP in the case of global warming mitigation or CO2 reduction policy is calculated by the model.
Assumption of GDP growth (%/yr)
| Y1980-2000 | Y2000-2020 | Y2020-2050 | Y2050-2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World average | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Japan | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Assumption of future final energy demands in Reference Case
The model uses the growth rate of final energy demands per GDP, which is derived for each kind of fuel and electricity from B2 Scenario (the original is the medium scenario of United Nations (UN) in 1998) on the "Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)" of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The assumed final energy demands for the 10 world regions are calculated by the synthesis of the above growth rate and the GDP assumption.
The assumption of final energy demands are for the Reference Case, and the final energy demands in the case of global warming mitigation or CO2 reduction policy are calculated by the model.
Assumption of final energy demand by region in Reference Case
Assumption of final energy demand by fuel in Reference Case
Assumption of growth of final energy demand (%/yr)
| Y1980-2000 | Y2000-2020 | Y2020-2050 | Y2050-2100 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World average | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Japan | 2.0 | 1.4 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
